The main goal of FUTURAR project is to investigate the air quality impacts, costs and benefits of emission reduction projections for 2030, using modelling tools to estimate the spatial distribution of environment and health impacts over Portugal.
FUTURAR will produce
- robust disaggregated emission scenarios, with focus on improving the spatial haracterization of NH3 and CH4 emissions from the agriculture sector, based on current emissions and projections under NEC scenarios by activity sector and pollutant and on energy, population, land use data and projections;
- estimates of future air quality at high temporal and spatial resolution for the NEC baseline and target years (2020, 2025,2030) considering meteorological changes and up to date online/offline air quality modelling tools and a fully understanding of O3 and PM formation and removal processes, and climate-chemistry feedbacks;
- maps of air quality indicators of the impact of emission reduction scenarios on human health based on the most suitable exposure response functions;
- NEC emission reduction cost-benefit maps for Portugal based on a cost-benefit analysis to assess and compare the identified policy emission scenarios;
This research will support policy strategies to be taken at national and regional level by competent authorities (e.g. Portuguese Environment Agency) to control the emissions of precursors by defining policy-oriented recommendations and guidelines to support the implementation of new EU air policy in Portugal, and contribute to the national air pollution control programme (NAPCP) to be adopted as a requirement of the new NEC proposal.
Moreover, FUTURAR outcomes will support TSAP assessments allowing to fill knowledge gaps and adjust/tune/improve IIASA estimates of emissions reduction and consequently environment and health impacts for Portugal, by providing information on key uncertainties and research needs.